Yesterday (11-9-2020) I was asked by PRESS TV to comment on the current tensions between Greece and Turkey.
I expressed the opinion that these tensions and war-mongering threats are coming from both sides, that is the Greek and the Turkish ruling elites. And that the peoples of Greece and Turkey have nothing to gain from this. The two ruling elites scramble for supposed oil reserves in the Eastern Mediterranean basin. The existence of these reserves is far from certain; and also, if they exist, it is equally uncertain whether it is economically feasible to exploit them (debth, price of oil etc.). The irony is that, even if they exist and one side or the other gets them, the ultimate beneficiary would be the big Western oil companies that will exploit them paying peanuts to the host country.
So, the Greek and the Turkish ruling elites are flirting with war for their own gains and the gains of their foreign patrons. The Greek and the Turkish peoples have nothing to gain from this. However, they will pay a bloody price in the case of a war as they will be the cannofodder for their ruling elites.
The solution is a return to the status quo ante and the cease of all aggressive actions by both sides.
The other commentator in the News programme was a Turkish analyst who expressed the typical nationalistic and war-mongering rhetoric of chauvinist jingoists in both sides of the Aegean. Notable, among his arguments, was the dictum that you can expand your borders by winning militarily. Typical rubbish by people that usually send other people to be massacred while they play the super-heroes safely at home.
The videos of the comment can be assesed via the following links:
The News Bulletin of PRESS TV asked for my comments on the current tensions between Greece and Turkey regarding the Exclusive Economic Zones in the Eastern Mediterranean.
The video of my comments and their transcript follows.
The current tensions are part of the long-running antagonism between the Greek and the Turkish ruling elites. This antagonism goes back to the formation of nation-states in the Balkan and the Eastern Mediterranean area in the 19th and the early 20th centuries.
In this antagonism both ruling elites scramble for gains and for regional influence.
They both use international law at will; that is each one chose an item of international law of the seas that suits it and disregards others.
This antagonism takes place under the auspices of the US, EU and NATO who are the ultimate patrons and arbiters. Recently, Greece has become even more subservient to these patrons because of its participation in the EU and the subsequent wreck of its economy during the recent economic crises. On the other hand, Turkey pursues a more independent and aggressive policy by playing not only with the West but also with Russia and other regional powers. As it feels more confident, the Turkish ruling elite expands its areas of operation more aggressively. However, the Greek ruling elite – although in a worse condition – does not fail to reply aggressively wherever it can.
The object of the current tensions is the ownership and the exploitation of potential oil and natural gas reserves in the Eastern Mediterranean. Thus, both ruling elites try to extend their Exclusive Economic Zones. The irony is that (a) the existence of these reserves (and moreover whether they are economically exploitable) is far from certain and (b) if they exist it is US and Western oil companies that will get the contracts.
This is a miserable reason for throwing the peoples of Greece and Turkey into a bloody war. A famous Turkish poet (Nazim Hikmet) once wrote that they are two Greeces and two Turkeys. The one is that of the ruling elite and it is fake: it serves only the interests of itself and its patrons. The other is that of the people and it is the real one. This real Greece and this real Turkey have no interest whatsoever in a bloody war supervised by the Western patrons.
I was asked for an opinion for the trade war between US and France in the News programme of PRESS TV (11-7-2020).
The videos of the interview follow below.
Also below are the main points of my intervention.
PRESS TV 11-7-2020
This last episode is part of the trade wars that are raging during the last decades
The main instigator is the US who sees its economic hegemony faltering and tries to secure its position.
The other parts retaliate.
However, the causes of these current trade wars are far deeper.
The collapse of the Eastern bloc enabled the West to instigate the ‘globalisation’, that is an era of opening the economies, removing protectionist and trade barrier and weakening the national economic policies of the less developed economies. This facilitated Western inroads in these economies. The US benefited most from this ‘globalisation’ era because of its dominance oon the financial sector. However, the ‘globalisation’ era created several contradictions for the world and western-dominated capitalist system. A number of countries (‘emerging economies’) became the manufacturing powerhouses of the global economy. Thus, slowly Western dominance is challenged.
Consequently, protectionism and trade wars were gradually implemented; particularly in the form of ‘economic sanctions’ but not only.
The eruption of the 2008 global capitalist crisis and the current coronavirus crisis shutters the ‘globalisation’ era. The crises lead to the eruption of intra-imperialist rivalries. Trade wars have become the name of the day. We have entered the ‘de-globalisation’ era. In this new era imperialist economic and military wars constitute the rule of the game.
Regarding this particular tit-for-tat between the US and France, I would not rule out a mid-term compromise between them; given that what they exchanged till now is more or less threats rather than the actual implementation of punitive measures. We have seen this also in the US-China trade war. However, the deep strategic rivalries will ultimately prevail – one way or another – and the trade war will continue anabated.
This is an interview in Press TV News (Stavros Mavroudeas & Steve Keen) on the recent turmoil in financial markets and the ominous signs of a coming new recession in the world economy. With Stev Keen we agreed that the gist of the matter are the unresolved causes of the 2008 crisis. However, we disagreed on its causes (Steve attributing it to deficient demand and private debt, me emphasising the falling profitability). We also disagreed on the subsequent measures used to surpass the 2008 crisis. Steve argued that Quantitative Easing is working, that public deficits do not matter and that the premature withdrawal of QE leads to the current turmoil. I argued that QE is not a remedy to falling profitability and problems in real accumulation. It alleviates part of the private debt but it cannot generate a recovery as profit rate falters. I also argued that public deficit matters as it becomes unsustainable and a burden to capital accumulation. More generally, I argued that when the real economy if ill (in marxist terms meaning a falling profitability) then monetary means cannot solve, in the long-run, the problem. Overall, this exchang is indicative on the differences between the Marxist and the post-Keynesian analysis.
Αυτή είναι μια συνέντευξη στο κεντρικό δελτίο ειδήσεων του Press TV που έδωσα μαζί με τον γνωστό μετα-Κεϋνσιανό οικονομολόγο Steve Keen σχετικά με την πρόσφατη αναταραχή στις διεθνείς χρηματοπιστωτικές αγορές και τα δυσοίωνα σημάδια μιας επερχόμενης νέας ύφεσης στην παγκόσμια οικονομία. Με τον Steve Keen συμφωνήσαμε ότι η ουσία του θέματος είναι τα ανεπίλυτα αίτια της κρίσης του 2008. Ωστόσο, διαφωνήσαμε για τα αίτιά της (ο Steve το αποδίδει σε ελλιπή ζήτηση και ιδιωτικό χρέος, ενώ εγώ υποστήριξα ότι οφείλεται στην πτώση της κερδοφορίας). Επίσης, διαφωνήσαμε σχετικά με τα επακόλουθα μέτρα που χρησιμοποιήθηκαν για να ξεπεραστεί η κρίση του 2008. Ο Steve υποστήριξε ότι η ποσοτική χαλάρωση (QE) λειτουργεί, ότι τα δημόσια ελλείμματα δεν έχουν σημασία και ότι η πρόωρη απ;osyrsh του QE οδηγεί στην σημερινή αναταραχή. Υποστήριξα ότι το QE δεν αποτελεί θεραπεία για την πτώση της κερδοφορίας και τα προβλήματα στην πραγματική συσσώρευση. Ανακουφίζει μέρος του ιδιωτικού χρέους αλλά δεν μπορεί να δημιουργήσει ανάκαμψη καθώς το ποσοστό κέρδους μειώνεται ή/και δεν είναι επαρκές. Υποστηρίζω επίσης ότι το δημόσιο έλλειμμα δεν είναι αδιάφορο θέμα καθώς καθιστά μη διατηρήσιμη και επιβαρύνει τη συσσώρευση κεφαλαίου. Γενικότερα, ισχυρίστηκα ότι όταν η πραγματική οικονομία είναι «άρρωστη» (πράγμα που από μαρξιστική άποψη σημαίνει πτώση της κερδοφορίας) τότε τα νομισματικά μέσα δεν μπορούν να λύσουν, μακροπρόθεσμα, το πρόβλημα. Συνολικά, αυτή η ανταλλαγή απόψεων είναι ενδεικτική των διαφορών μεταξύ της Μαρξιστικής και της μετα-Κεϋνσιανής ανάλυσης.
These are the videos of the interview (together with Sp. Marchetos) in Press TV news on the results of the recent (7-7-2019) Greek general elections. The interview was aired on 8-7-2019.
Following is the viedo of a recent interview in Press TV News regarding the US sanctions, the ICPOA agreement and Iran’s increase of nuclear production
The EU is in the middle. It is pressed by US but it cannot resist it. The INSTEX mechanism is simply s figurehead.
The US, with the current Trump administration, wants to either bring Iran to its knees or even instigate a ‘regime change’. Thus, it tries to put enormous economic pressure through sanctions targeting especially Iran’s oil exports. It also, with the overt and covert co-operation of the Saudis and Israel, instigates a ‘dirty war’ against Iran; currently under false flag operations. Britain which is supposed to remain in the JCPOA oscillates towards the US both with regards to the ‘false flag’ operations and the sanctions (as the recent seizure of an Iranian oil tanker in Gibraltar indicates).
This is the transcript of my interview in PRESS TV News (14-11-2018) on the Greek public workers’ strike. The video of the interview follows.
After a considerable period of calm there is currently a resurgence of popular mobilisations in Greece.
The Greek people are suffering from a barbaric EU-IMF austerity program for 8 years.
Initially there were massive popular reactions to austerity policies.
Then they calmed down as SYRIZA’s election in government was supposed to ameliorate people’s living standards.
This was disproved as SYRIZA continued the same austerity policies as its predecessors.
The recent resurgence of popular mobilisations is fomeneted by the following reasons.
First, SYRIZA and the EU are – deceivingly and for their own political and geopolitical reasons – declaring that the Greek crisis is over. This is not true. The Greek crisis is still simmering. However, the people think that if the crisis is over then it is time for recuperating at least some of the huge losses that it has suffered. Keep in mind that the Greek workers and middle classes have curried the burden of austerity whereas the Greek capitalists are largely unscathed.
Second, 2019 is a multi-election year. We have euroelections, local elections and ultimately general elections. So, the people sense that establishment parties are in a vulnerable position and if they don’t want to suffer huge electoral losses then they have to make concessions.
The Greek and EU establishment want to make as little concessions as possible, surpass the elections and then renew the austerity drive.
However, history has taught that once the genie of popular action is liberated from its cage then the corrupt Greek and EU establishments might not be able to contain it.
This is a glimpse of hope for Greece
Συνέντευξη στο PRESS TV 14-11-2018
Μετά από μια σημαντική περίοδο ηρεμίας υπάρχει σήμερα μια αναζωπύρωση των λαϊκών κινητοποιήσεων στην Ελλάδα.
Ο ελληνικός λαός υποφέρει από ένα βάρβαρο πρόγραμμα λιτότητας ΕΕ-ΔΝΤ για 8 χρόνια.
Αρχικά υπήρξαν τεράστιες λαϊκές αντιδράσεις στις πολιτικές λιτότητας.
Κατόπιν μετριάστηκαν καθώς η εκλογή του ΣΥΡΙΖΑ στην κυβέρνηση υποτίθεται ότι θα βελτίωνε το βιοτικό επίπεδο του λαού.
Αυτό διαψεύστηκε καθώς ο ΣΥΡΙΖΑ συνέχισε τις ίδιες πολιτικές λιτότητας με τους προκατόχους του.
Η πρόσφατη αναζωπύρωση των λαϊκών κινητοποιήσεων επηρεάζεται από τους ακόλουθους λόγους.
Πρώτον, ο ΣΥΡΙΖΑ και η ΕΕ – με εξαπάτηση και για δικούς τους πολιτικούς και γεωπολιτικούς λόγους – δηλώνουν ότι η ελληνική κρίση έχει τελειώσει. Αυτό δεν είναι αλήθεια. Η ελληνική κρίση εξακολουθεί να σιγοβράζει. Ωστόσο, ο λαός πιστεύει ότι εάν η κρίση τελειώνει, τότε είναι καιρός να ανακτήσει τουλάχιστον μερικές από τις τεράστιες απώλειες που έχει υποστεί. Λάβετε υπόψη ότι οι Έλληνες εργαζόμενοι και οι μεσαίες τάξεις έχουν σηκώσει όλο το βάρος της λιτότητας, ενώ οι Έλληνες καπιταλιστές είναι σε μεγάλο βαθμό αλώβητοι.
Δεύτερον, το 2019 είναι ένα έτος πολλαπλών εκλογών. Έχουμε ευρωεκλογές, τοπικές εκλογές και τελικά γενικές εκλογές. Έτσι, ο λαός αισθάνεται ότι τα κόμματα του κατεστημένου βρίσκονται σε ευάλωτη θέση και αν δεν θέλουν να υποστούν τεράστιες εκλογικές απώλειες τότε πρέπει να κάνουν παραχωρήσεις.
Τα κατεστημένα της Ελλάδας και της ΕΕ θέλουν να κάνουν όσο το δυνατόν λιγότερες παραχωρήσεις, να ξεπεράσουν τις εκλογές και στη συνέχεια να ανανεώσουν την προσπάθεια λιτότητας.
Ωστόσο, η ιστορία έχει διδάξει ότι, μόλις απελευθερωθεί ο τζίνι της λαϊκής δράσης από το κλουβί του, τότε τα διεφθαρμένα ελληνικά και ευρωπαϊκά κατεστημένα ίσως δεν θα μπορέσουν να τα συγκρατήσουν.
The Iranian international news service Press TV in its Debate focused on the Greek crisis. I was ivited to participate in it together with L.Padolski from Washington.
This is the video of the event:
A small lapsus on my behalf: at some point I erroneously said that the Greek economy has already lost 46% of its GDP (instead of 26% that is the correct number). It was an unintented verbal error.
Instituto Marxista de Economía
Stavros Mavroudeas Blog 